Development and Validation of a Prediction Model of the Risk of Pneumonia in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Author:

Yi Xi1ORCID,Fu Daiyan2,Wang Guiliang1,Wang Lile2ORCID,Li Jirong1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Radiology, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital/The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410016, China

2. Department of Respiratory Medicine, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital/The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410016, China

Abstract

Objective. To establish a prediction model of pneumonia risk in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients to reduce unnecessary chest CT scans. Materials and Methods. The model was constructed based on a retrospective cohort study. We selected SARS-CoV-2 test-positive patients and collected their clinical data and chest CT images from the outpatient and emergency departments of Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital, China. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were utilized to identify predictors of pneumonia risk for patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. These predictors were then incorporated into a nomogram to establish the model. To ensure its performance, the model was evaluated from the aspects of discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity. In addition, a smoothed curve was fitted using a generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the association between the pneumonia grade and the model’s predicted probability of pneumonia. Results. We selected 299 SARS-CoV-2 test-positive patients, of whom 205 cases were in the training cohort and 94 cases were in the validation cohort. Age, CRP natural log-transformed value (InCRP), and monocyte percentage (%Mon) were found to be valid predictors of pneumonia risk. This predictive model achieved good discrimination of AUC in the training and validation cohorts which was 0.7820 (95% CI: 0.7254–0.8439) and 0.8432 (95% CI: 0.7588–0.9151), respectively. At the cut-off value of 0.5, it had a sensitivity and specificity of 70.75% and 66.33% in the training cohort and 76.09% and 73.91% in the validation cohort, respectively. With suitable calibration accuracy shown in calibration curves, decision curve analysis indicated high clinical value in predicting pneumonia probability in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. The probability of pneumonia predicted by the model was positively correlated with the actual pneumonia classification. Conclusion. This study has developed a pneumonia risk prediction model that can be utilized for diagnostic purposes in predicting the probability of pneumonia in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Microbiology (medical)

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3