A Comparative Analysis of the Forecasted Mortality Rate under Normal Conditions and the COVID-19 Excess Mortality Rate in Malaysia

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2, known as COVID-19, has affected the entire world, resulting in an unexpected death rate as compared to the death probability before the pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, death probability has been assessed in a normal context that is different from those anticipated during the pandemic, particularly for the older population cluster. However, there is no such evidence of excess mortality in Malaysia to date. Therefore, this study determines the excess mortality rate for specific age groups during the pandemic outbreak in Malaysia. Before determining the excess mortality rate, this study aims to establish the efficiency of various parametrized mortality models in reference to the data set before the pandemic. This study employs the hold-out, repeated hold-out, and leave-one-out cross-validation procedures to identify the optimal mortality law for fitting the mortality data. Based on the goodness-of-fit measures (mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, sum square error, and mean square error), the Heligman-Pollard model for men and Rogers Planck model for women are considered as the optimal models. In assessing the excess mortality, both models favour the hold-out technique. When the COVID-19 mortality data are incorporated to forecast the mortality rate for people aged 60 and above, there is an excess mortality rate. However, the men’s mortality rate appears to be delayed and more prolonged than the women’s mortality rate. Consequently, the government is recommended to amend the existing policy to reflect the post COVID-19 mortality forecast.