Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Development under the Implementation of Support Policies with Endogenous Financial Resources Using a Hybrid Decision Support Model

Abstract

Sustainable electricity development is one of the requirements for achieving sustainable development in global communities. However, due to barriers, especially in less developed countries, there is little incentive to invest in the development of sustainable electricity technologies. Therefore, there should be a change in market mechanisms, and broad support policies have to be implemented for the sustainable development of electricity. In the long run, these policies must lead to the sustainable development of energy systems. To evaluate the efficiency and effects of the proposed support policies on the sustainability of electricity generation development, this study intends to analyze the multiple and complex dimensions of the problem using a hybrid decision support model. Moreover, by defining an indicator to assess the electricity generation expansion sustainability, this study assists policymakers in making logical decisions about sustainable support programs for the electricity development based on the characteristics of the electricity market of each country. Despite uncertainties in the electricity market, simulations show that the results of this hybrid model have approximately 88% conformance with historical data. Consequently, the model can evaluate the sustainability of the system under the implementation of the proposed support programs and compare them to select the most effective one. The results show that by assuming a competitive market and rational behavior and implementing support programs with endogenous financial resources, the installed renewable capacity can be improved by up to 70.4% compared with the direct subsidy policies. Regardless of the financial burden of policies (e.g., direct subsidies) and the possibility of facing a budget deficit, these programs can be up to 79.2% more effective in the sustainability of the energy system compared with the direct subsidy policy.