Fuzzy Modeling for the Dynamics of Alcohol-Related Health Risks with Changing Behaviors via Cultural Beliefs

Abstract

In this paper, we propose and analyze a fuzzy model for the health risk challenges associated with alcoholism. The fuzziness gets into the system by assuming uncertainty condition in the measure of influence of the risky individual and the additional death rate. Specifically, the fuzzy numbers are defined functions of the degree of peer influence of a susceptible individual into drinking behavior. The fuzzy basic risk reproduction number R0f is computed by means of Next-Generation Matrix and analyzed. The analysis of R0f reveals that health risk associated with alcoholism can be effectively controlled by raising the resistance of susceptible individuals and consequently reducing their chances of initiation of drinking behavior. When perceived respectable individuals in the communities are involved in health education campaign, the public awareness about prevailing risks increases rapidly. Consequently, a large population proportion will gain protection from initiation of drinks which would accelerate their health condition into more risky states. In a situation where peer influence is low, the health risks are likely to be reduced by natural factors that provide virtual protection from alcoholism. However, when the perceived most influential people in the community engage in alcoholism behavior, it implies an increase in the force of influence, and as such, the system will be endemic.