A GreyNGM(1,1,k)Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

Author:

Guo Xiaojun12,Liu Sifeng1,Wu Lifeng1,Tang Lingling3

Affiliation:

1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

2. School of Science, Nantong University, Nantong 226019, China

3. School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA

Abstract

Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel greyNGM(1,1,k)self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and greyNGM(1,1,k)model. The traditional grey model’s weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority ofNGM(1,1,k)self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.

Funder

European Community

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Subject

General Environmental Science,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Medicine

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