Proposed Models for Prediction of Mortality in Stage-I and Stage-II Gastric Cancer and 5 Years after Radical Gastrectomy

Abstract

The current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system provides limited information for patients with early death from stage-I and stage-II gastric cancer (GC) and death at >5 years after radical gastrectomy. The aim of this study was to construct nomogram models to predict the mortality risk of these patients. In this study, clinical and pathological data on patients who underwent curative gastrectomy at Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital between 2000 and 2014 were retrospectively collected. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to screen for sensitive serum immune biomarkers to predict the risk of mortality death >5 years after radical gastrectomy (Group A) and risk of early death in stage-I and stage-II GC (Group B). The prediction model was constructed by combining serum immune markers with clinicopathological features by R Studio. We found that serum fibrinogen (F), systemic immune inflammation (SII), and pTNM stage were independent risk factors for prognosis in Group A ( $P<0.05$ ). F, SII, age, Borrmann type, and scope of gastrectomy were independent risk factors for prognosis in Group B ( $P<0.05$ ). The area under the curve of the predictive model in Groups A and B was 0.726 and 0.848, respectively. In conclusion, the predictive models of F and SII combined with clinicopathological features can predict high mortality risk in patients with stage-I and stage-II GC and >5 years after radical gastrectomy, which will contribute to the supplement of the traditional AJCC system and to individual survival prediction.