Study on Prediction of Coal-Gas Compound Dynamic Disaster Based on GRA-PCA-BP Model

Abstract

The intensity and depth of China’s coal mining are increasing, and the risk of coal-gas compound dynamic disaster is prominent, which seriously restricts the green, safe, and efficient mining of China’s coal resources. How to accurately predict the risk of disasters is an important basis for disaster prevention and control. In this paper, the Pingdingshan No. 8 coal mine is taken as the research object, and the grey relational analysis (GRA), principal component analysis (PCA), and BP neural network are combined to predict the coal-gas compound dynamic disaster. First, the weights of 13 influencing factors are sorted and screened by grey relational analysis. Next, principal component analysis is carried out on the influencing factors with high weight value to extract common factors. Then, the common factor is used as the input parameter of BP neural network to train the previous data. Finally, the coal-gas compound dynamic disaster prediction model based on GRA-PCA-BP neural network is established. After verification, the model can effectively predict the occurrence of coal-gas compound dynamic disaster. The prediction results are consistent with the actual situation of the coal mine with high accuracy and practicality. This work is of great significance to ensure the safe and efficient production of deep mines.