Estimating the Number of COVID-19 Cases and Impact of New COVID-19 Variants and Vaccination on the Population in Kerman, Iran: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Abstract

COVID-19 is spreading all over Iran, and Kerman is one of the most affected cities. We conducted this study to predict COVID-19-related deaths, hospitalization, and infected cases under different scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) by 31 December 2021 in Kerman. We also aimed to assess the impact of new COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the total number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations (scenarios D, E, and F) using the modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. We calibrated the model using deaths reported from the start of the epidemic to August 30, 2021. A Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) uncertainty analysis was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We also calculated the time-varying reproductive number ( $R_{\text{t}}$ ) following time-dependent methods. Under the worst-case scenario (scenario A; $\text{contact}\text{rate}=10$ , $\text{self}‐\text{isolation}\text{rate}=30\%$ , and average vaccination shots per $\text{day}=\mathrm{5,000}$ ), the total number of infections by December 31, 2021, would be 1,625,000 (95% UI: 1,112,000–1,898,000) with 6,700 deaths (95% UI: 5,200–8,700). With the presence of alpha and delta variants without vaccine (scenario D), the total number of infected cases and the death toll were estimated to be 957,000 (95% UI: 208,000–1,463,000) and 4,500 (95% UI: 1,500–7,000), respectively. If 70% of the population were vaccinated when the alpha variant was dominant (scenario E), the total number of infected cases and deaths would be 608,000 (95% UI: 122,000–743,000) and 2,700 (95% UI: 700–4,000), respectively. The $R_{\text{t}}$ was ≥1 almost every day during the epidemic. Our results suggest that policymakers should concentrate on improving vaccination and interventions, such as reducing social contacts, stricter limitations for gathering, public education to promote social distancing, incensing case finding and contact tracing, effective isolation, and quarantine to prevent more COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Kerman.