A New Approach to Determine the Critical Path in Stochastic Activity Network

Abstract

The determination of the critical path (CP) in stochastic networks is difficult. It is partly due to the randomness of path durations and partly due to the probability issue of the selection of the critical path in the network. What we are confronted with is not only the complexity among random variables but also the problem of path dependence of the network. Besides, we found that CP is not necessarily the longest (or shortest) path in the network, which was a conventional assumption in use. The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Index (CPI) approaches are not able to deal with this problem efficiently. In this study, we give a new definition on the CP in stochastic network and propose a modified label-correcting tracing algorithm (M-LCTA) to solve it. Based on the numerical results, compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), the proposed approach can accurately determine the CP in stochastic networks.