Discussing Total Electron Content over the Solar Wind Parameters

Abstract

Modeling and forecasting of Total Electron Content (TEC) values by an Artificial Neural Network model (ANNm) have high agreement on November 2003, 2004 superstorms. The work discusses Solar Wind Parameters (SWp) from OMNI (Operating Missions as a Node on the Internet) and TEC (TECU) data (International Reference Ionosphere) IRI-2012, IRI-2016 on November 20, 2003 (Dst = –422 nT) and on November 08, 2004 (Dst = –374 nT) Geomagnetic Storms (GSs). The paper commences with a 120-hour GS exhibition of SWp and proceeds with the correlation data of the variables, their hierarchical tracks, and inner dispersions. The ANNm with SWp as the input and TEC data as the output are introduced. The performance of the ANNm for 2003 and 2004 superstorms is adequate. The Correlation Coefficient (R) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the ANNm are 97.5%, 1.17 TECU (IRI-2012), and 97.9%, 1.09 TECU (IRI-2016) for the 2003 GS and 97.0%, 0.89 TECU (IRI-2012), and 98.0%, 1.61 TECU (IRI-2016) for 2004 GS. Parameters effect of the R constant of TEC data points out to the dynamic pressure (nPa), the magnetic field Bz component (nT), the flow speed (km/s), and the proton density (1/cm3). Besides, the absolute total error and the variance of the predicted TEC data for November 2003 and November 2004 GSs are 0.06 (0.30%) with 0.013 variance (IRI-2012), 0.09 (0.49%) with 0.016 variance (IRI-2016) for 2003 storm and 0.13 (0.73%) with 0.033 variance (IRI-2012), and 0.11 (1.06%) with 0.035 variance (IRI-2016) for 2004. It means that the paper models TEC data with considerable consistency over the SWp.