Load Pattern Analysis and Consumer Response Potential Evaluation for Demand‐Side Power Regulation

Abstract

Flexible demand‐side load resources provide a novel approach for promoting power supply‐demand equilibrium and the consumption of renewable energy. However, the assessment of consumer response potential is encountering significant challenges due to uncertain surrounding users’ power consumption behavior and their individual preferences. In this paper, we propose a quantitative method for evaluating the load response potential of consumers based on nonnegative matrix factorization and prospect theory. Firstly, nonnegative matrix factorization is employed to decompose and cluster historical load data, enabling the extraction of typical load patterns for different consumer groups. In addition, three indicators are proposed to assess consumer response potential from dispatchable power capacity, available response time, and response reliability. Considering the bounded rationality and subjective preferences of consumers, this study employs gray correlation analysis and prospect theory to explore how consumers perceive risks and benefits across different indicators. Furthermore, subjective weights are incorporated to reflect the requirements of the power system side. Simulation results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach in the comprehensive evaluation of consumer response potential.