Preliminary Study to Evaluate Three Different Treatments on Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Based on Markov Model

Abstract

This study evaluates the costs and utilities of different treatment strategies for stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients based on Markov model and provides guidance for clinical decision and health policy making. Patients with stable COPD from four subcenters had been investigated. A Markov model with three states, namely, GOLD 1-2, GOLD 3-4, and death, was built using TreeAge Pro 2011 software. Cost-utility ratio (CUR) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) from forty Markov circles were applied to measuring the economics evaluation of three different treatments. A total of 236 stable COPD patients were randomly assigned into three groups, Western medicine group (79 cases), traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) group (79 cases), and combined group (78 cases). The results of Markov cohort simulation showed that the accumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the three above groups per 100 000 people in 40 years were 1 702 773, 1 616 797, and 1 709 668 years, respectively, and the accumulative costs were 13 582 138 466, 1 207 904 113, and 14 656 607 371 Yuan, respectively. The CURs of the three groups were 87 235, 74 602, and 87 223 Yuan/QALY, respectively. ICURs of combined group were 8 707 and 41 705 Yuan as against Western medicine group and TCM group, respectively. Therefore, combined treatment has a lower cost, higher health output, and more socioeconomic benefits in the long run. Markov model is recommended to conduct health economics evaluation of different treatments for COPD.