Temporal Trends of Common Female Malignances on Breast, Cervical, and Ovarian Cancer Mortality in Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort Model

Abstract

Background. Reproductive system cancer is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide which threatens women’s health and lives. Breast, cervical, and ovarian cancer have the higher incidence and mortality among a series of gynecology malignant tumor. We aimed to compare and assess the temporal trends of common female malignances on breast, cervical, and ovarian cancer mortality in developed regions of Asia including Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore and analyze the detached effects of chronological age, time period, and birth cohort by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods. The mortality data for these three cancers were collected from the WHO Mortality Database in Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore from 1954 to 2013, from 1989 to 2013, and from 1964 to 2013, respectively. We fitted an age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator method to estimate the independent effect of each age, time period, and birth cohort on cancer mortality and describe the secular changes in three Asian countries. Results. For the overall trends of breast cancer, the ASMRs of breast cancer showed a general increasing trend among three countries during the study periods while the change pattern in Singapore was different from the rest of the two countries for cervical and ovarian cancer. By APC analysis, the three cancer mortality risks generally increased with age and decreased with birth cohort. For period effects of breast and ovarian cancer, increasing effects with time were observed; however, for period effects of cervical cancer, converse change pattern was presented among three countries. Conclusions. Our study shows that the ASMRs of breast, cervical, and ovarian cancer remain high in Singapore compared to Japan and Korea. Generally speaking, the mortality risk of three cancers increased with age, and period and cohort effects may collectively affect the common female malignances mortality for East Asian women.