Forecasting of Wastewater Discharge and the Energy Consumption in China Based on Grey Model

Abstract

Water pollution control is currently an important development strategy for China. Analysis and forecasting of wastewater discharge and the energy consumption are critical for this strategy. In this paper, we proposed the two time series models, namely, improved GM(0,n) model (IGM(0,n)) and optimized FGM(1,1) model (OFGM(1,1)). Two numerical experiments were used to test the validity of these models. It was indicated that the forecasting ability of two models had remarkably improved, compared to traditional FGM(1,1) and GM(0,n), respectively. We applied the two models to forecast wastewater discharge and energy consumption in China. The forecasting results have shown that the current growth rate in treated wastewater could meet the planning target of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The wastewater discharge and the energy consumption would reach 77.39 billion tons and 22.75 billion kWh, respectively, in 2020.