1. Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM 01-HCFMUSP, Avenida Dr. Arnaldo 455, 01246-903 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
2. Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute for Health Research, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, Canada M3J 1P3
3. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London, London, UK