Predicting Microbursts in the Northeastern U.S. Using Lightning Flash Rates and Simple Radar Parameters

Abstract

Convective storms that produce microburst winds are difficult to predict because the strong surface winds arise in a short time period. Previous research suggests that timing and patterns in cloud height, echo top height, vertical integrated liquid (VIL), intracloud (IC) lightning, and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning may identify and predict microbursts. Eleven quasi-cellular microburst cases and eight non-microburst severe wind cases were identified from New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey between 2012 and 2016. Total lightning data (IC + CG) were obtained from Vaisala’s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and radar parameters were obtained from the Thunderstorm Identification Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN) software. Values of VIL, echo top height, and cloud height were tracked through time along with total lightning strikes within a 15 km radius of the storm center. These parameters were plotted with respect to their mean and standard deviation for the 45 minutes leading up to event occurrence. Six of eleven cases featured peaks in total and IC lightning within 25 minutes prior to the microburst. These were the only variables among those examined to peak more than half the time for either the microburst cases or the null cases. The results suggest that microbursts behave somewhat differently than severe wind events, particularly in terms of lightning and VIL timing. The results dispute previous research that suggests that microbursts are highly predictable by the behavior of lightning and radar parameters.