Granger Causality Analysis of Foreign Trade in Cement Products and Ecological Impact in China

Abstract

This paper presents an in-depth study and analysis of the impact of foreign trade on cement products and the ecological environment in China through Granger causality analysis. Based on the theoretical basis of foreign trade, ecological environment, and the relationship between them, a general equilibrium model is used to empirically analyze the “three effects” of foreign trade in Chinese cement products on the ecological environment, and the effects of import and export trade on ecological environment and the net effects are calculated, respectively. Then, based on the data of domestic and foreign cement product production and trade, the purpose, scope, and environmental impact factors of the ecological impact of foreign trade of Chinese cement products were determined by the life cycle assessment method, and the inventory analysis was carried out in phases based on the six aspects of nonrenewable resource depletion, global warming, photochemical ozone generation, acidification, eutrophication, and human health damage. The results were characterized and standardized, and the hierarchical analysis method was used to weight the evaluation of each environmental impact type, and finally, the resource consumption coefficient and environmental impact load index values and corresponding ratios were determined based on the green product evaluation method. This paper establishes an index system for the ecological and environmental impacts of foreign trade of cement products, which is a guide for the ecological and environmental impacts of foreign trade of other products in China. The results of the study on the ecological and environmental impacts of foreign trade of Chinese cement products also have important practical significance for the formulation of regulations and standards related to the cement industry, the adjustment of the import and export structure of cement products, and the improvement of production equipment and processes.