Prediction Methods for Routine Maintenance Costs of a Reinforced Concrete Beam Bridge Based on Panel Data

Abstract

In order to make informed decisions on routine maintenance of bridges of expressways, the hierarchical regression analysis method was used to quantify factors influencing routine maintenance cost. Two calculation models for routine maintenance cost based on linear regression and time-series analysis were proposed. The results indicate that the logarithm of the historical routine maintenance cost is the dependent variable and the bridge age is the independent variable. The linear regression analysis was used to obtain a cost prediction model for routine maintenance of a beam bridge, which was combined with the quantity and price, and verified by a physical engineering example. In order to cope with the cost changes and future demands brought about by the emergence of new maintenance technologies, the time-series analysis method was used to obtain a model to predict the engineering quantities for the routine maintenance of a bridge based on standardized minor repair engineering quantities. Taking into account the actual cost of the minor repair project as well as the time-series analysis’ sample size demands, the annual engineering quantity was randomly decomposed into four quarterly data quantities, and the time-series analysis result was verified by physical engineering. These results can improve the calculation accuracy of the routine maintenance costs of reinforced concrete beam bridges. Furthermore, it can have a certain application value for improving the cost measurement module of bridge maintenance management systems.