Do Expressway Interchanges Increase Crash Injury Severities? Insights Using Temporal Instability and Unobserved Heterogeneity

Abstract

Expressway crashes in interchange areas are a critical concern in China, posing significant economic and social challenges. Utilizing three years of crash data from the Beijing–Shanghai Expressway, this study investigates the transferability and heterogeneity of crash characteristics between interchange and noninterchange areas, as well as the temporal shifts in factors influencing injury severity levels. The research employs four series of random parameters logit models to estimate three potential crash injury severity outcomes of severe injury, minor injury, and no injury (based on the most severely injured individual in each crash) and to identify key determinants, encompassing driver, vehicle, roadway, environmental, temporal, traffic, and crash attributes. Likelihood ratio tests and out-of-sample predictions are utilized to assess the temporal stability and transferability of crash area characteristics. Additionally, the marginal effects of various determinants are calculated to understand their influence across different year periods and crash types. Key variables such as overspeed, single-vehicle, AADT (annual average daily traffic volume), ${\text{Ls}}_{\min }$ , and other crash type indicators are identified as significant random parameters, demonstrating heterogeneity in means and variances. Notable distinctions are observed between interchange and noninterchange crashes, indicating nontransferability, with most significant indicators revealing temporal instabilities. Furthermore, factors such as multivehicle involvement, buses, and nighttime conditions are identified as risk indicators, notably increasing the likelihood of severe injuries. These insights are invaluable for expressway designers and decision-makers, aiding in understanding the contributing mechanisms of various elements. This study suggests that stricter enforcement measures are crucial to prevent random lane changes, particularly at interchange entrances and exits. Additionally, effective management strategies and enforcement countermeasures should be implemented to mitigate crash injury outcomes in both interchange and noninterchange areas.