Evaluation and Error Correction of the ECMWF Subseasonal Precipitation Forecast over Eastern China during Summer

Abstract

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction is a highly regarded skill around the world. To improve the S2S forecast skill, an S2S prediction project and an extensive database have been established. In this study, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model hindcast, which participates in the S2S prediction project, is systematically assessed by focusing on the hindcast quality for the summer accumulated ten-day precipitation at lead times of 0–30 days during 1995–2014 in eastern China. Additionally, the hindcast error is corrected by utilizing the preceding sea surface temperature (SST). The metrics employed to measure the ECMWF hindcast performance indicate that the ECMWF model performance drops as the lead time increases and exhibits strong interannual differences among the five subregions of eastern China. In addition, the precipitation forecast skill of the ECMWF hindcast is best at approximately 15 days in some areas of Southeast China; after correcting the forecast error, the forecast skill is increased to 30 days. At lead times of 0–30 days, regardless of whether the forecast error is corrected, the root mean square errors are lowest in Northeast China. After correcting the forecast error, the performance of the ECMWF hindcast shows better improvement in depicting the quantity and temporal and spatial variation of precipitation at lead times of 0–30 days in eastern China. The false alarm ratio (FAR), probability of detection (POD), and equitable threat score (ETS) reveal that the ECMWF model has a preferable performance at forecasting accumulated ten-day precipitation rates of approximately 20∼50 mm and indicates an improved hindcast quality after the forecast error correction. In short, adopting the preceding SST to correct the summer subseasonal precipitation of the ECMWF hindcast is preferable.