A Model for Predicting Clinical Prognosis in Patients with WHO Grade 2 Glioma

Abstract

Objectives. Although patients with grade 2 glioma have a relatively better prognosis and longer survival than those with high-grade glioma, there are still a number of patients with disappointing outcomes. In order to accurately predict the prognosis of patients, relevant risk factors were included in the analysis to establish a clinical prediction model so as to provide a basis for clinically individualized treatment. Methods. A retrospective study was conducted in patients diagnosed with grade 2 glioma. Data including clinical features, pathological type, molecular classification, neuroimaging examination, treatment, and survival were collected. The data sets were randomly assigned, with 80% of the data used for model building and 20% for validation. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to construct the model using important risk factors and present it in the form of a nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated a using C-index and calibration chart. Results. A total of 160 patients were enrolled in this analysis, including 128 in the training group and 32 in the validation group. In the training group, eight important risk factors including preoperative KPS, the first presenting symptom, the extent of resection, the gross tumor size, 1p19q, IDH, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified to construct the model. The C-index of the training group and the validation group was 0.832 and 0.801, respectively, indicating that the model had good prediction ability. The calibration charts of the two groups were drawn respectively, which showed that the calibration line and the standard line had a good consistency, which suggested that the model-predicted risk had a good consistency with the actual risk. Conclusions. Based on the data of our center, a nomogram prediction model with eight variables has been established as an off-the-rack tool and verified its accuracy, which can guide clinical work and provide consultation for patients.