Machine Learning Model and Statistical Methods for COVID-19 Evolution Prediction

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the statistical processing of COVID-19 data. COVID-19 was initially recognized in Wuhan, China, on December 31, 2019. It then spread to other parts of the world, so it became known as a pandemic. It has received interest due to its sudden emergence as a deadly human pathogen. The effect is not only confined to morbidity and mortality but also extends to social and economic consequences. Statistical analysis is required to measure the damage done to humans and take the necessary measures to limit this damage. The objective of the work was to examine the effects of various factors on the deaths due to COVID-19. To achieve this goal, we applied a logistic regression (LR) model, as a statistical method, and a decision tree model, as a machine learning method, to model the deaths due to COVID-19 in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The predictive abilities of these two models were compared. The overall accuracies of the decision tree and LR were 94.1% and 93.9%, respectively. It was also observed that countries with high population densities tended to have more cases than those with smaller population densities. There were more female deaths than male deaths in the United Kingdom, and more deaths occurred for those aged 65 years and older. The data were collected from the World Health Organization’s official website from January 11, 2020, to May 29, 2020. The results obtained were in agreement with the previous results obtained by others.