Overall Cost Overrun Estimate in Residential Projects: A Hybrid Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Residential projects are described as complex, dynamic systems that are subject to uncertainty. Cost performance is a fundamental challenge. As a result, project managers must adequately identify risks that might lead to cost overruns in residential construction projects. Simulation is noticed to be a useful technique for dealing with these complications. Therefore, this study developed a hybrid dynamic approach to study the effect of different risks on the cost performance of construction projects. The proposed approach combines system dynamics (SD) and discrete event simulation (DES), which can take into consideration the dynamics of the project environment, which contains various continuous influencing factors as well as the construction operations. The developed hybrid model is validated through serial model structure tests and model behavior tests, with the aid of data collected from a real construction project used in the simulation process. Based on the simulation results, it is concluded that the proposed hybrid dynamic approach is helpful to enhance the process performance by permitting construction managers to identify possible process improvement areas that traditional methods may miss.