Influence of Weather Conditions on the Onset of Spontaneous Pneumothorax in the Region of Sousse (Tunisia): Analysis of Time Series

Abstract

Introduction. Weather conditions were implicated in the onset of spontaneous pneumothorax (SP). Aim. Investigate the influence of weather conditions on the onset of SP. Methods. A total of 200 patients with SP in Sousse (Tunisia) were enrolled in the study between January 2010 and December 2014. An analysis of two time series (meteorological data and pneumothorax cases) was performed. Data on weather conditions were collected daily throughout the 5-year period. Results. A comparison of the mean temperature between days with and without SP showed significantly higher temperatures during the days with SP. A decrease of 1% in the relative humidity one day lag (D-1) was associated with an increase in the risk of SP by 1.6% (p=0,02). The occurrence of clusters was associated significantly with higher temperature averages on the same days. This same observation was made regarding the mean duration of sunshine two days before the cluster onset (p = 0.05). The occurrence of storms two days before clusters was also significantly associated with a risk multiplied by 1.96. Conclusion. There was a correlation between clusters of spontaneous pneumothorax and weather conditions in the region of Sousse-Tunisia.