Modeling and Estimation of CO2 Emissions in China Based on Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Since China’s reform and opening up, the social economy has achieved rapid development, followed by a sharp increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Therefore, at the 75th United Nations General Assembly, China proposed to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The research work on advance forecasting of CO2 emissions is essential to achieve the above-mentioned carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in China. In order to achieve accurate prediction of CO2 emissions, this study establishes a hybrid intelligent algorithm model suitable for CO2 emissions prediction based on China’s CO2 emissions and related socioeconomic indicator data from 1971 to 2017. The hyperparameters of Least Squares Support Vector Regression (LSSVR) are optimized by the Adaptive Artificial Bee Colony (AABC) algorithm to build a high-performance hybrid intelligence model. The research results show that the hybrid intelligent algorithm model designed in this paper has stronger robustness and accuracy with relative error almost within ±5% in the advance prediction of CO2 emissions. The modeling scheme proposed in this study can not only provide strong support for the Chinese government and industry departments to formulate policies related to the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, but also can be extended to the research of other socioeconomic-related issues.