Predictive Value of Arterial Blood Lactic Acid Concentration on the Risk of in-Hospital All-Cause Death in Patients with Acute Heart Failure

Abstract

The study aims to examine the predictive value of arterial blood lactic acid concentration for in-hospital all-cause mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients with acute heart failure (AHF). We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 7558 AHF patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. The exposure variable of the present study was arterial blood lactic acid concentration and the outcome variable was in-hospital all-cause death. The patients were divided into those who survived (n = 6792) and those who died (n = 766). The multivariate logistic regression model, restricted cubic spline (RCS) plot, and subgroup analysis were used to evaluate the association between lactic acid and in-hospital all-cause mortality. In addition, receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis also was performed. Finally, we further explore the association between NT-proBNP and lactic acid and in-hospital all-cause mortality. Compared with the lowest quartiles, the odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals for in-hospital all-cause mortality across the quartiles were 1.46 (1.07–2.00), 1.48 (1.09–2.00), and 2.36 (1.73–3.22) for lactic acid, and in-hospital all-cause mortality was gradually increased with lactic acid levels increasing ( $P$ for trend <0.05). The RCS plot revealed a positive and linear connection between lactic acid and in-hospital all-cause mortality. A combination of lactic acid concentration and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II may improve the predictive value of in-hospital all-cause mortality in patients with AHF (AUC = 0.696). Among subgroups, respiratory failure interacted with an association between lactic acid and in-hospital all-cause mortality ( $P$ for interaction <0.05). The correlation heatmap revealed that NT-proBNP was positively correlated with lactic acid (r = 0.07) and positively correlated with in-hospital all-cause mortality (r = 0.18). There was an inverse L-shaped curve relationship between NT-proBNP and in-hospital all-cause mortality, respectively. Mediation analysis suggested that a positive relationship between lactic acid and in-hospital all-cause death was mediated by NT-proBNP. For AHF patients in the ICU, the arterial blood lactic acid concentration during hospitalization was a significant independent predictor of in-hospital all-cause mortality. The combination of lactic acid and SAPS II can improve the predictive value of the risk of in-hospital all-cause mortality in patients with AHF.