Changes in Temperature Trends and Extremes over Saudi Arabia for the Period 1978–2019

Abstract

Climate change is posing severe threats to human health through its impacts on food, water supply, and weather. Saudi Arabia has frequently experienced record-breaking climate extremes over the last decade, which have had adverse socioeconomic effects on many sectors of the country. The present study explores the changes in average temperature and temperature extremes over Saudi Arabia using an updated daily temperature dataset for the period 1978–2019. Also, changes in frequency and percentile trends of extreme events, as well as in absolute threshold-based temperature extremes, are analyzed at seasonal and annual time scales. The results are robust in showing an increase in both temperature trends and temperature extremes averaged over the second period (2000–2019) when compared to the first period (1980–1999). Over the period 1978–2019, the minimum temperature for the country increased (0.64°C per decade) at a higher rate than the maximum temperature (0.60°C per decade). The rate of increase in the minimum and maximum temperatures was reported as 0.48 and 0.71°C per decade, respectively, for the period 1978–2009. The minimum temperature increased by 0.81°C per decade for the second period compared to an increase of 0.47°C per decade for the first period. The significant increase in minimum temperature has resulted in a decreasing linear trend in the diurnal temperature range over recent decades. The maximum (minimum) temperature increased at a higher rate for Jan-Mar (Jun-Nov) with the highest increase of 0.82 (0.89)°C per decade occurring in March (August). The analysis shows a substantial increase (decrease) in the number of warm (cold) days/nights over the second period compared to the first period. The number of warm days (nights) significantly increased by about 13 (21) days per decade, and there is a significant decrease of about 11 (13) days per decade of cold days (nights). The seasonal analysis shows that this increase in warm days/nights is enhanced in boreal summer, with a reduction in the number of cold days/nights in winter. These results indicate that the warming climate of Saudi Arabia is accelerating in recent decades, which may have severe socioeconomic repercussions in many sectors of the country.