Impact of Intravenous Drug Use on HIV/AIDS among Women Prisoners: A Mathematical Modelling Approach

Abstract

Intravenous drug use and tattooing remain one of the major routes of HIV/AIDS transmission among prisoners. We formulate and analyze a deterministic model for the role of intravenous drug use in HIV/AIDS transmission among women prisoners. With the aid of the Centre Manifold theory, the endemic equilibrium is shown to be locally asymptotically stable when the corresponding reproduction number is greater than unity. Analysis of the reproduction number and numerical simulations suggest that an increase in intravenous drug use among women prisoners as they fail to cope with prison settings fuels the HIV/AIDS epidemic in women prisoners. Failure to control HIV/AIDS among female prisoners may be a time bomb to their communities upon their release. Thus, it may be best to consider free needle/syringe exchange and drug substitution treatment programmes in women prisons as well as considering open prison systems for less serious crimes.