Forecasting Civil Aviation Incident Rate in China Using a Combined Prediction Model

Abstract

With the rapid development of air transportation, the complexity, importance, and severity of civil aviation safety have gradually become prominent. It is essential to use various data to analyze and predict the level of aviation safety. This paper used a combined prediction model based on Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging (IOWA) operator to forecast the civil aviation incident rate. We compiled and calculated civil aviation incident data and total flight hours from 2008 to 2019 in China and took the civil aviation incident rate (incident numbers per ten thousand flight hours) as the prediction object. First, this paper used the nonlinear regression model, Grey Verhulst model, and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model to forecast the civil aviation incident rate individually. Then, it used the smallest sum of squared errors as the principle to use a combined prediction model based on the IOWA operator. It can be seen from the experimental results that the prediction accuracy of the combined model is better than single models. Finally, this paper forecasted the civil aviation incident rate in 2020 and 2021. The results showed that the predicted rates are 0.524 and 0.551. Most notably the incident rate will increase significantly compared with 2019.