Understanding the Usage Patterns of Bicycle-Sharing Systems to Predict Users’ Demand: A Case Study in Wenzhou, China

Abstract

Bicycle-sharing systems (BSSs) have become a prominent feature of the transportation network in many cities. Along with the boom of BSSs, cities face the challenge of bicycle unavailability and dock shortages. It is essential to conduct rebalancing operations, the success of which largely depend on users’ demand prediction. The objective of this study is to develop users’ demand prediction models based on the rental data, which will serve rebalancing operations. First, methods to collect and process the relevant data are presented. Bicycle usage patterns are then examined from both trip-based aspect and station-based aspect to provide some guidance for users’ demand prediction. After that, the methodology combining cluster analysis, a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), and comparative analysis is proposed to predict users’ demand. Cluster analysis is used to identify different service types of stations, the BPNN method is utilized to establish the demand prediction models for different service types of stations, and comparative analysis is employed to determine if the accuracy of the prediction models is improved by making a distinction among stations and working/nonworking days. Finally, a case study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology. Results indicate that making a distinction among stations and working/nonworking days when predicting users’ demand can improve the accuracy of prediction models.