Sites of Synchronous Distant Metastases, Prognosis, and Nomogram for Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients with Bone Metastasis: A Large Cohort Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background. Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is often associated with metastases at the time of diagnosis, and the bone is one of the most common sites. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the site of synchronous distant metastasis to other organs in SCLC patients with bone metastasis (BM) and develop a robust predictive prognostic model. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed the data from patients diagnosed with SCLC with BM in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors. A prognostic nomogram was constructed and evaluated by calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Then, according to the sites of metastasis and treatment modality, all patients were stratified into several subgroups. The relationship among sites of metastasis, treatment modality, and overall survival was then analyzed. Results. A total of 6253 patients were included. Independent prognostic factors for SCLC with BM were age, sex, primary site, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, and marital status. Calibration, ROC curves, and DCA indicated the excellent performance of the prognostic nomogram. The liver is the most common organ for extraskeletal metastases, followed by the lung. Patients with only BM had the longest mean survival time (9.30 ± 0.31 months). In the subgroup analysis, chemotherapy was an independent prognostic factor for all subgroups. In contrast, radiotherapy showed a positive effect on the prognosis of patients in all subgroups except those with bone and brain metastases and those with bone, lung, and brain metastases. Conclusions. The prognostic nomogram is expected to be an accurate and personalized tool for predicting the prognosis of SCLC patients with BM. Additionally, the determination of the sites of synchronous extraskeletal metastases and the associated prognosis helps in treatment selection.