The Presence of Ascites Affects the Predictive Value of HVPG on Early Rebleeding in Patients with Cirrhosis

Abstract

Background and Aims. Gastroesophageal variceal bleeding is a serious complication of portal hypertension in cirrhotic patients and could be predicted by hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). However, whether the presence of ascites affects the prognostic value of HVPG for patients with acute variceal bleeding is still unknown. This retrospective study is aimed at investigating the influence of ascites on predictive performance of HVPG for early rebleeding in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Methods. In this retrospective study, a total of 148 patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for acute variceal bleeding who underwent HVPG measurement and endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for the prevention of rebleeding were included. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and logistical regression method were employed to analyze the predictive performance of HVPG for early rebleeding. The locally weighted scatterplot smoothing approach was adopted to assess the monotonicity between bleeding risk and HVPG. Results. A significantly higher HVPG level was observed in patients with early rebleeding compared to patients without rebleeding in the nonascites cohort. When using HVPG to predict early rebleeding, there was a lower area under curve in the ascites cohort compared to the nonascites cohort. HVPG was recognized as a risk factor for early rebleeding by a logistic regression model only in the nonascites cohort. An overall monotonicity in the trend of change in HVPG and risk for early rebleeding was observed in the nonascites cohort solely. Conclusion. The predictive value of HVPG for early rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis that developed acute variceal bleeding is hindered by the presence of ascites.