Development and Validation of Nomograms to Assess Risk Factors and Overall Survival Prediction for Lung Metastasis in Young Patients with Osteosarcoma: A SEER-Based Study

Author:

Liu Zongtai1ORCID,Li Guibin2ORCID,Liu Haiyan3ORCID,Zhu Jiabo1ORCID,Wang Dalin1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Orthopedics, Affiliated Hospital of Beihua University, Jilin, China

2. Department of Orthopedics, Jilin Province FAW General Hospital, Jilin, China

3. Department of Orthopedics, Baicheng Central Hospital, Jilin, China

Abstract

Background. To establish two nomograms to quantify the diagnostic factors of lung metastasis (LM) and their role in assessing prognosis in young patients with LM osteosarcoma. Methods. A total of 618 osteosarcoma young patients from 2010 to 2015 were included from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Another 131 patients with osteosarcoma from local hospitals were also collected as an external validation set. Patients were randomized into training sets (n = 434) and validation sets (n = 184) with a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factor for LM and were used to construct the nomogram. Risk variables for the overall survival rate of patients with LM were evaluated by Cox regression. Another nomogram was also constructed to predict survival rates. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and retrospective research on 131 osteosarcoma young patients from 2010 to 2019 at three local hospitals. Results. There were 114 (18.45%) patients diagnosed as LM at initial diagnosis. The multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that T stage, N stage, and bone metastasis were independent risk factors for LM in newly diagnosed young osteosarcoma patients ( P < 0.001 ). The ROC analysis revealed that area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.751, 0.821, and 0.735 in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set, respectively, indicating good predictive discrimination. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis suggested that age, surgery, chemotherapy, primary site, and bone metastasis were prognostic factors for young osteosarcoma patients with LM. The time-dependent ROC curves showed that the AUCs for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 0.817, 0.792, and 0.815 in the training set and 0.772, 0.807, and 0.804 in the internal validation set, respectively. As for the external validation set, the AUCs for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 0.787, 0.818, and 0.717. Conclusions. The nomograms can help clinicians strengthen their personal decision-making and can improve the prognosis of osteosarcoma patients.

Funder

Jilin Provincial Science and Technology Development Program

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Subject

General Medicine

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3