Prognostic Factors and Nomograms for Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients with Uveal Melanoma without Metastases: A SEER Analysis of 4119 Cases

Abstract

Purpose. To determine prognostic factors for patients with uveal melanoma without metastases and to construct nomograms to predict their 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Methods. We included 4119 patients who were registered from 2004 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The median follow-up time was 5.8 years. Independent risk factors affecting OS and CSS were identified with univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and used to construct nomograms. Internal and external validation were carried out by using the bootstrap method to calculate the concordance indices (C-indices) and plot the calibration curves. Results. Age, primary site, histological type, T-stage, and treatment were independent risk factors for OS and CSS; marital status and sequence number were factors only for OS. The C-indices for internal validation of OS and CSS were 0.713 (95% CI, 0.697–0.729) and 0.708 (95% CI, 0.688–0.728), respectively, and for external validation they were 0.729 (95% CI, 0.705–0.753) and 0.731 (95% CI, 0.700–0.762), respectively. The calibration curves also revealed good agreement between the predicted and actual survival rates. Conclusions. We constructed nomograms to predict the 3- and 5-year OS and CSS of patients with uveal melanoma without metastases. Our nomograms may improve prognostication and assist with the development of individualized treatment strategies.