Potential Evapotranspiration Reduction and Its Influence on Crop Yield in the North China Plain in 1961–2014

Abstract

Climate change has caused uneven changes in hydrological processes (precipitation and evapotranspiration) on a space-temporal scale, which would influence climate types, eventually impact agricultural production. Based on data from 61 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014 in the North China Plain (NCP), the spatiotemporal characteristics of climate variables, such as humidity index, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (ET0), were analyzed. The sensitivity coefficients and contribution rates were applied to ET0. The NCP has experienced a semiarid to humid climate from north to south due to the significant decline of ET0 (−13.8 mm decade−1). In the study region, 71.0% of the sites showed a “pan evaporation paradox” phenomenon. Relative humidity had the most negative influence on ET0, while wind speed, sunshine hours, and air temperature had a positive effect on ET0. Wind speed and sunshine hours contributed the most to the spatiotemporal variation of ET0, followed by relative humidity and air temperature. Overall, the key climate factor impacting ET0 was wind speed decline in the NCP, particularly in Beijing and Tianjin. The crop yield in Shandong and Henan provinces was higher than that in the other regions with a higher humidity index. The lower the humidity index in Hebei province, the lower the crop yield. Therefore, potential water shortages and water conflict should be considered in the future because of spatiotemporal humidity variations in the NCP.