Association of Initial Serum Total Calcium Concentration with Mortality in Critical Illness

Abstract

Background. Several studies have suggested that serum ionized calcium (iCa) is associated with mortality in critical illness. However, evidence regarding the predictive significance of serum total calcium (tCa) in critical illness remains scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the association of tCa levels with mortality in critical illness. Methods. We employed the MIMIC-III v1.3 database. tCa was measured upon ICU admission and its relationship with mortality was determined using smooth curve fitting. The association between admission tCa levels and hospital mortality was determined using logistic regression. Results. Inclusion criteria were met by 44,886 critically ill patients. A U-shaped pattern was observed between tCa and hospital mortality. Similar trends were observed for hospital mortality when quintiles were used to group patients according to tCa. In multivariate analysis, adjusted for age and sex, the model indicated that admission tCa levels ⩽7.6mg/dl, 7.7-8.1mg/dl, and ⩾9.0mg/dl were associated with an increase in mortality when compared to the reference level (8.6-9.0mg/dl). However, adjusted for more clinical characteristics, tCa was not associated with hospital mortality. Conclusions. The relationship between tCa and hospital mortality followed a ‘‘U’’ shaped curve. tCa had certain prognostic value in critically ill patients, but it had no independent association with hospital mortality.