Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends for Climate-Resilient Maize Farming System in Major Agroecology Zones of Ethiopia

Abstract

Maize is one of the most important cereal food crops, and it can be grown all year in various agroecological zones. However, its vegetative growth and yield are susceptible to rainfall and temperature variability. As a result, the analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trend was urgently needed in maize-growing agroecology zones to restructure the production system. The aim of the study was to examine rainfall and temperature variability and trends for developing a climate-resilient maize farming system in major agroecology zones in northwest Ethiopia. The study was implemented in low productive agroecology zones (LPZ), medium productive agroecology zones (MPZ), and high productive agroecology zones (HPZ) of northwest Ethiopia using daily time series climate data during the period 1987–2018. The coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI), and standardized precipitation (SPI) were applied to examine rainfall variability. Mann–Kendall’s and Sen’s slope estimator trend tests were used to detecting the statistical significance of changes in rainfall and temperature. Statistically significant increasing trends for annual maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded for all maize-producing agroecology zones. The mean annual temperature has exhibited a significant warming trend of 0.12 to 0.54°C per decade. The average annual rainfall has decreased by 38 to 67 mm per decade in all maize agroecology zones. Our research also showed that droughts now happen every one to three years; even consecutive droughts were seen in 2009, 2010, and 2011. For this reason, it could be required to develop a system of climate-resilient maize farming to address the issues of both global warming and the sub-Saharan countries that make up our study area. Climate-resilient maize agronomic activities have been determined by analyzing the onset, length of the growth period (LGP), and cessation date. Accordingly, the lower and upper quartiles of the date of onset of rainfall were in a range of May 9 to June 2, respectively; the length of the growth period (LGP) during the rainy season ranges from 97 to 232 days, and the cessation date of rainfall was November 1. Therefore, the short- to long-maturing maize varieties can be planted from May 9 to June 2 and can begin to be harvested in the first week of November under the current climatic circumstances.