Novel Network Public Opinion Prediction and Guidance Model Based on “S-Curve”: Taking the Loss of Contact with “Malaysia Airlines”

Abstract

It is of great significance for the government to control the network public opinion in time and maintain social stability to predict the network public opinion in emergency. This paper proposes a novel improvement method to “S-curve” theory in the context of big data and establishes three novel network public opinion prediction models. These models take into account the proliferation trend of initial and follow-up network public opinion over a long period of time when emergencies are formed and the objective environment suddenly changes, based on the information diffusion model conforming to the traditional “S-curve” theory. The novel improvement and establishment allow our model to have more accurate predictions than other scholars’ models that mainly study the first network public opinion in a shorter period of time. And it is more applicable to real social conditions, in line with the public’s cognition of reality, and provides more reference for the government to take preventive and corresponding positive guiding measures in advance. To better establish the model, we obtained the 24-day Weibo data associated with the incident of “Malaysia Airlines” loss of contact from big data for model establishment, public opinion prediction, and comprehensive evaluation. The result innovatively shows that, in addition to the initial public opinion that is worthy of attention, the follow-up public opinion is also noteworthy and proves that our model has more practical value.