Numerical Simulation to Predict COVID-19 Cases in Punjab

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 is a novel disease caused by a newly identified virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). India recorded its first case of COVID-19 on 30 January 2020. This work is an attempt to calculate the number of COVID-19 cases in Punjab by solving a partial differential equation using the modified cubic B-spline function and differential quadrature method. The real data of COVID-19 cases and Google Community Mobility Reports of Punjab districts were used to verify the numerical simulation of the model. The Google mobility data reflect the changes in social behavior in real time and therefore are an important factor in analyzing the spread of COVID-19 and the corresponding precautionary measures. To investigate the cross-border transmission of COVID-19 between the 23 districts of Punjab with an analysis of human activities as a factor, the 23 districts were divided into five regions. This paper is aimed at demonstrating the predictive ability of the model.