Modeling the Motorcycle Crash Severity on Nonintersection Urban Roadways in the Australian State of Victoria Using a Random Parameters Logit Model

Abstract

Due to a lack of physical protection and balance, motorcycle riders are one of the most vulnerable road users and are more likely to suffer severe injuries than motorists. Between 2009 and 2020, about 60% of motorcycle crashes occurred on nonintersection urban roadways in Victoria, Australia. While considerable research on intersections and their influence on the severity of motorcycle crashes has been conducted, there are limited studies on motorcycle crashes on nonintersection roadways. Since gathering all information from every motorcycle crash may not be possible, heterogeneity can arise from unobserved factors and cause problems in developing reliable crash severity models. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the factors contributing to motorcycle crash severity on Victorian nonintersection urban roadways while considering the heterogeneity of factors. A total of 10,897 nonintersection motorcycles crash data from the beginning of 2009 to November 2020 in the State of Victoria, Australia, were analyzed. A random parameters (mixed) logit model (RPL) was used for evaluating motorcycle crashes. The severity of motorcycle crashes was divided into three categories: fatal injury, serious injury, and minor injury. Also, marginal effects were calculated to see how each parameter estimate affects crash severity outcomes. The RPL model results showed that some factors increased the likelihood of fatal injuries. These factors included not wearing a helmet, being in the older rider age group, riding during the early morning or midnight hours, weekend motorcycle use, riding in the early morning or midnight hours (00:00–6:29 A.M), and insufficient lighting (dark and dusk/dawn). Also, the following factors enhanced the probability of serious injuries: having a pillion passenger, having a motorcycle age of more than 7 years, riding at higher speed limits (more than 50 km/h) or during peak hours in the morning (6:30−8:59 A.M), and being in the younger age group (less than 26 years old). The findings from this study are valuable resources for road safety policy managers to develop effective strategies for improving motorcyclists’ safety at nonintersections. This may include improving the light conditions at nonintersection, encouraging the motorcyclist to maintain motorcycles regularly, and educating the motorcyclist to wear a helmet, avoid distractions, and ride responsibly on the weekends.