Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Ecological Vulnerability of Northern China

Abstract

Ecological vulnerability is the focus of research on global environmental impact, regional sustainable development, ecological civilization, and green development. There are eight deserts and four sandy lands in northern China. The ecological environment is sensitive to climate change and human activities. It is of great significance to carry out long-term sequential ecological vulnerability assessments. Therefore, taking northern China as the research area, this paper selects 13 data indicators such as climate, topography, and soil based on the ecological sensitivity-ecological recovery-ecological pressure model (SPR) and uses the spatial principal component analysis method (SPCA) to quantitatively evaluate the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and driving forces of ecological vulnerability in this area from 1980 to 2020. The results showed that areas with extreme, severe, and moderate vulnerability dominated northern China, accounting for 74.58% of the total area. The analysis revealed a decrease in ecological vulnerability from west to east and north to south. Meanwhile, from the perspective of timing, the overall level of ecological vulnerability showed an upward trend before 2000, and the overall level of ecological vulnerability continued to decline after 2000, and the quality of the ecological environment improved. During the study period, areas in northern China with severe vulnerability and slight vulnerability showed a change of 15.53% and -14.01%, respectively. The main reason for the change in ecological vulnerability is the frequent transformation between forest land, grassland, water, and cultivated land. In addition, the study found a spatial autocorrelation of ecological vulnerability of northern China and a significantly positive correlation. After 2000, the spatial aggregation of vulnerability was high-high cluster, which was mainly distributed in northwest China. The study’s findings will provide a robust scientific basis for ecosystem management and sustainable development.