Identifying Clinicopathological Risk Factors of the Regional Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with T1-2 Mucinous Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Abstract

Background. Pure mucinous breast cancer (PMBC) has a better prognosis than other types of invasive breast cancer. However, regional lymph node metastasis (LNM) might reverse this outcome. We aim to determine the independent predictive factors for regional LNM and further develop a nomogram model for clinical practice. Method. Data of PMBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program between Jan 2010 and Dec 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for LNM in T1-2 MBC. The nomogram was constructed and further evaluated by an internal validation cohort. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves were performed to evaluate the accuracy of this model. Result. Five variables, including age, race, tumor size, grade, and breast subtype, were identified to be significantly associated with regional LNM in female patients with T1-2 PMBC. A nomogram was successfully established with a favorable concordance index (C-index) of 0.780, supported by an internal validation cohort with a C-index of 0.767. Conclusion. A nomogram for predicting regional LNM in female patients with T1-2 PMBC was successfully established and validated via an internal cohort. This visualized model would assist surgeons to make appropriate clinical decisions in the management of primary PMBC, especially in terms of whether axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) is warranted.