Long-Term Homogeneity and Trends of Hydroclimatic Variables in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Understanding long-term trends in hydroclimatic variables is important for future sustainable water resource management as it could show the possible regime shifts in hydrology. The main objective of this study was to analyze the homogeneity and trends of hydroclimatic data of Upper Awash Sab-Basin (UASB) in Oromia, Ethiopia, by employing homogeneity tests and Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests. The data consist of 18 rainfall stations, 8 temperature stations, and 8 flow gauging stations across the UASB. Homogeneity and trends in streamflow, rainfall, and temperature variables were analyzed for the time period 1980 to 2017. In order to analyze homogeneity of hydroclimatic variables, we used four homogeneity tests (Pettitt’s test, Buishand’s test, standard normal homogeneity test, and von Neumann ratio test) at 5% significance level. Based on the outputs of four homogeneity tests, the results were classified into three categories, namely, “useful,” “doubtful,” and “suspect” to select the homogeneity stations. Mann-Kendall (Z) and Sen’s slope tests (Q) were applied for the selected homogeneous time series to detect the trend and magnitude of changes in hydroclimatic variables. The result showed that most of the stations in annual rainfall and streamflow data series were classified as useful. It is found that 58% of the rainfall stations were homogeneous. It is highlighted that 3 out of 8 discharge gauging stations have an inhomogeneity as they failed from one or a combination of the four tests. The MK revealed significant decreasing trends of annual rainfall in Addis Alem (Q = −19.81), Akaki (Q = −5.60), Hombole (Q = −9.49), and Ghinch (Q = −12.38) stations. The trend of annual temperature was a significant increasing trend in Addis Ababa Bole (Q = 0.05), Addis Ababa Tikur Ambessa (Q = 0.03), Tulu Bolo (Q = 0.07), and Addis Alem (Q = 0.06) stations. The results of discharge showed a significant increasing trend in Bega at Mojo (Q = 0.17) and Hombole (Q = 0.03) gauging stations. In general, the results obtained from discharge, rainfall, and temperature series indicated that most of the stations exhibited no trends in both annual and seasonal time series. It can be concluded that decreases in average annual rainfall totals and increases in mean annual temperature will probably drive sub-basin scale changes in discharge. We believe that the results obtained can fill information gaps on homogeneity and trends of hydroclimatic variables, which is very crucial for future water resource planning and management in the face of climate change.