A Poisson-Fault Model for Testing Power Transformers in Service

Abstract

This paper presents a method for assessing the instant failure rate of a power transformer under different working conditions. The method can be applied to a dataset of a power transformer under periodic inspections and maintenance. We use a Poisson-fault model to describe failures of a power transformer. When investigating a Bayes estimate of the instant failure rate under the model, we find that complexities of a classical method and a Monte Carlo simulation are unacceptable. Through establishing a new filtered estimate of Poisson process observations, we propose a quick algorithm of the Bayes estimate of the instant failure rate. The proposed algorithm is tested by simulation datasets of a power transformer. For these datasets, the proposed estimators of parameters of the model have better performance than other estimators. The simulation results reveal the suggested algorithms are quickest among three candidates.