Optimization of Tree-Based Machine Learning Models to Predict the Length of Hospital Stay Using Genetic Algorithm

Abstract

The length of hospital stay (LOS) is a significant indicator of the quality of patient care, hospital efficiency, and operational resilience. Considering the importance of LOS in hospital resource management, this research aims to improve the accuracy of LOS prediction using hyperparameter optimization (HPO). Expert physicians and related studies were reviewed to determine the variables affecting LOS. The electronic medical records of 200 patients in the department of internal medicine of a hospital in Iran were collected randomly. As the performance of machine learning (ML) models can vary based on the characteristics of the features, several models were applied and evaluated in this study. In particular, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), multivariate regression, decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), and XGBoost have been evaluated and improved. The genetic algorithm (GA) was applied to optimize the tree-based models. In addition, the dummy coding technique, sometimes called the One-Hot encoding, was used to encode categorical features to increase prediction accuracy. Compared with other algorithms, the XGBoost model optimized by GA (XGB_GA) achieved higher accuracy and better prediction performance. The mean and median of absolute errors in the test dataset for this model were 1.54 and 1.14 days, respectively. In other words, the XGB_GA model reduced the mean absolute error by 37%, which is beneficial in the reliable design of a clinical decision support system.