A Study on China’s Cultural Product Export Trade and Its Forecast Based on Hausmann’s Export Complexity

Abstract

The cultural and creative industries are another fast-growing new industry after the information technology industry and have become a major driving force in global international trade and economic development. In this paper, the index of “export complexity” is chosen to measure the export complexity of cultural and creative products in China and 42 representative countries selected by UNCTAD’s “Creative Economy” database for measurement and comparative analysis. This paper uses a grey prediction model to forecast the relative export complexity of China’s cultural and creative products. The prediction results show that from 2016 to 2025, the relative export complexity of China’s cultural and creative products is less than 1, but the value is increasing, and the gap between the export structure of China’s cultural and creative products and the global average in the increasingly competitive international market will narrow year by year.