Evaluation of Failure Probability in Series System of Three-Axle Trucks under Strong Crosswind

Abstract

The probability of wind-induced failure accidents in three-axle trucks under pulsating strong crosswinds and the corresponding critical safe speed are investigated in this study. Reliability theory and random fuzzy methods are utilized to establish the membership function of the failure probability in the series system (FPSS) composed of rollover, side-slip, and rotation failure accidents. The Kaman spectrum is used to realistically simulate the fluctuating wind time history curves of different average speeds. Four factors affecting the six-component force coefficient of the three-axle truck and the crosswind load are considered: fluctuating average wind speed, wind direction (angle), truck driving speed, and road adhesion coefficient. A three-axle truck nonlinear model is established accordingly. The model is used to obtain the dynamic response of the three-axle truck under strong crosswind conditions as per the time-varying curves of the vertical load of the truck, the time-varying curves of the lateral displacement of the center of mass, and the time-varying curves of the heading angle. An advanced Monte Carlo simulation algorithm based on importance sampling is used to determine the probability of a three-axle truck with FPSS under strong crosswinds; the given acceptable probability of failure (accident) is used to obtain the critical safety speed. The sensitivity analysis of random variables reveals that the possibility of three truck failures of the three-axle truck in strong crosswinds is, from largest to smallest, rollover, side-slip, and rotation. This research may provide useful guidance for exploring the probability of wind-induced accidents and the critical safety speeds of vehicles, as well as useful general information for road transportation management departments.