Logistic Regression Analysis of Clinical Characteristics for Differentiation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Severity

Abstract

Background. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of general clinical data, blood test indexes, and ventilation function test indexes on the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods. A total of 141 clinical characteristics of COPD patients admitted to our hospital were collected. A mild-to-moderate group and a severe group were classified depending on the severity of COPD, and their baseline data were compared. The predictive factors of severe COPD were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram model of severe COPD was constructed. The clinical variables, including gender, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), age, course, diabetes, hypertension, smoking history, WBC, NEUT, lymphocyte count (LY), MONO, eosinophil count (EOS), PLT, mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet distribution width (PDW), partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), and PaCO2, were collected. Results. There were 67 mild-to-moderate COPD patients and 74 severe COPD patients in this study cohort. Severe COPD had a higher white blood cell count (WBC), neutrophil count (NEUT), monocyte count (MONO), platelet count (PLT), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and a lower partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that WBC, NEUT, MONO, PLT, and NLR were contributing factors of severe COPD, while PaCO2 was an unfavorable factor of severe COPD. Enter, forward, backward, and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses all showed that NEUT and PLT were independent contributing factors to severe COPD. Moreover, the nomogram model had good predictive ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve being 0.881. Good calibration and clinical utility were validated through the calibration plot and the decision curve analysis (DCA) plot, respectively. Conclusion. The severity of COPD was correlated with NEUT and PLT, and the nomogram model based on these factors had good predictive performance.