Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Model Based on Poultry Transport Network in China

Abstract

In order to analyze the spread of avian influenza A (H7N9), we construct an avian influenza transmission model from poultry (including poultry farm, backyard poultry farm, live-poultry wholesale market, and wet market) to human according to poultry transport network. We obtain the threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza A (H7N9) and also give the existence and number of the boundary equilibria and endemic equilibria in different conditions. We can see that poultry transport network plays an important role in controlling avian influenza A (H7N9). Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effects of poultry in different places on avian influenza. In order to reduce human infections in China, our results suggest that closing the retail live-poultry market or preventing the poultry of backyard poultry farm into the live-poultry market is feasible in a suitable condition.