Model Uncertainty in Predicting Facing Tensile Forces of Soil Nail Walls Using Bayesian Approach

Abstract

The model uncertainty in prediction of facing tensile forces using the default Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) simplified equation is assessed in this study based on the Bayesian inference method and a large number of measured lower and upper bound facing tensile force data collected from the literature. Model uncertainty was quantified by model bias which is the ratio of measured to nominal facing tensile force. The Bayesian assessment was carried out assuming normal and lognormal distributions of model bias. Based on the collected facing tensile force data, it is shown that both the on-average accuracy and the spread in prediction accuracy of the default FHWA simplified facing tensile force equation depend largely upon the distribution assumptions. Two regression approaches were used to calibrate the default FHWA simplified facing tensile force equation for accuracy improvement. The Bayesian Information Criterion was adopted to quantitatively compare the rationality between the competing normal and lognormal statistical models that were intended for description of model bias. A case study is provided in the end to demonstrate both the importance of model uncertainty and the influence of distribution assumptions on model bias in reliability-based design of soil nail walls against facing flexural limit state.